The South China Sea Imbroglio

The ruling of an international  tribunal at the Permanent  Court of Arbitration  ( PCA) yesterday has finally  and decisively pronounced a verdict on the legality of China's position in the South China Sea.

Though China has refused to be part of the proceedings claiming that the matter pertains to its territorial waters or maritime borders and hence out of the purview of the PCA, the Phillipines managed to ask for an assessment  of its own sovereign rights, jurisdiction over its maritime entitlements, and the validity of China's nine-dash-line claim under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea ( UNCLOS).

Very categorically, the ruling has it that there exists no legal basis for China's claims to historic rights to resources within its nine-dash-line. Further it says China has aggravated the dispute and violated the Phillipines' sovereign rights by its construction  of artificial islands and interference with fishing and energy exploration. This brings us to the interesting question of future positions of various players.

The Phillipines : Though it may not be in any state to challenge China militarily, the Phillipines  has successfully  staged a diplomatic coup  and has sound legal backing for future claims or disputes in the area.With the mercurial Duterte now the President of the Phillipines  we my see further action on this front.

China : The dragon does not seem overtly concerned and with the kind of construction activity and setting up of military basis, is not likely to now rescind its position. Having gone from strength to strength economically and militarily, China does not need any international  approval that it used to seek in the past. Overall it may not make very substantial difference to China's stance, but it will have to deal with greater resolve and antagonism on the part of other stakeholders.

Other Littoral States : This decision will certainly boost the claims of other littoral states as also give them moral and legal ascendancy.

United States : The US is now in a stronger legal position to bring to bear pressure on China in its dealing with the South China Sea Imbroglio. Though this may not be sufficient to make any difference in actual terms, the US  will be on a moral high ground when it takes up military and naval exercises in the area along with countries such as the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and South Korea.