On Brexit and its Implications- The curious case of Britain, Europe, NATO & Russia

Pic Courtsey- www.huffingpost.co.uk

The world was stunned by the ‘Brexit’ vote leading to extreme reactions across the global political and economic spectrum. In the ongoing debate some clear conclusions have emerged.

1.       Britain itself-The markets have shown how incendiary the prospect of Brexit is. Coupled with the immediate fall of the pound and the long term consequences of no more Euro-aid being pumped into Britain, even ordinary people who may not fully understand the economic implications have begun to comprehend the significance of this blunder. Politically Britain itself is in tatters with virtually no clarity on who is going to lead it through the exiting process and the years to come. One clear corollary is of course the failure of direct democracy as an option. Representative democracy may be slower but definitely more balanced. (Is this a case in point for seekers of referendums in other parts of the world?)

 Both Scotland and Northern Ireland have heard rumbles of extreme dissent, going to the point of breaking away from the United Kingdom. If this indeed transpires, needless to stress on the impact on Britain as a powerful nation. Socially as well the country sees new chasms emerging in the aftermath of the vote. Overall a grim situation!

2.       Europe- Faced with the prospect of an EU without the UK, with increasing immigration leading to ethno cultural differences, Europe may well see a ‘Frexit’. It will leave an EU without a single counter to Germany, reminiscent of the last century? In that case, is there a distinct possibility of an emerging German hegemon?

3.       NATO’s significance- In the reduced EU, NATO’s significance becomes that much more; however the question is “will NATO remain as formidable as it is?” With the US Republican presumptive nominee Donald Trump denouncing NATO as a dinosaur serious implications arise in case of a Republican victory in November. Growing Russian belligerence in the eastern extreme of Europe, has forced NATO to drastically increase its strength in Poland (ongoing military exercises this week) and the eastern republics of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. These republics face a serious problem with huge ethnic Russian populations and have seen the effects in Crimea (Ukraine c 2014). Will NATO be able to sustain this increased deployment in view of the uncertainty prevailing over Europe and the US?

4.       Russia- Of course Russia has been a gleeful spectator of the turn of events seeing tremendous opportunity for the erosion of the EU’s success and strengthening its own position in Eastern Europe. In the eventuality that Europe and by association NATO becomes weaker, it leads to the spectre of Russian incursions in eastern Europe as well as an increased grandstanding in the conflict in the Middle east. Interesting times ahead!!

Suicide Bombings in Medina

The suicide bombings in Medina, the second holiest shrine of Islam, on 4^th of July has indeed brought the spectre of radical Islam full circle for the Saudis. Having spawned Islamic radicalism and funded terrorists for more than two decades now, it was but a matter of time that the radicals bit the very hand that fed them. The Saudis Have been doing a balancing act for far too long to be able to sustain it endlessly- maintaining a close relationship with the US on one hand, and secretly funding the jihadis on the other, was always mutually incompatible. It has become even more so, with the Islamic State taking their fight to altogether new levels of barbarianism.

The attack was also meant to direct two significant missives at the world. One, the attack was planned in the holy month of Ramadan, and two, it was carried out on the 4^th of July. Coinciding with the American Independence Day, it was evidently symbolic of the Islamic State's fIght against the global hegemon. That it was done during Ramadan was clearly a challenge to traditional Islam's view of a month of spirituality and penance by the IS, trying to superimpose its own interpretation of the scriptures, portraying Ramadan as a month of plunder and conquest.

Despite all the best efforts of the countries aligned against the IS, there is yet much of a palpable fight left. Equally, for the Saudis, the proverbial chickens have come home to roost.