Ukraine War and other Tremors
The Russo-Ukraine War drags on into the seventh week of fighting, as claims and counter-claims continue to be exchanged over which side has the upper hand. While the west has relied on sanctions and provision of military aid to Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to have stumped any more stringent measures being implemented, and largely nullified the ability of the west to intervene more meaningfully by publicising his nuclear option. To that end, the vily ex-KGB agent also seems to have highlighted the weakness of nuclear armed opponents engaging in a confrontation; once the nuclear option is exercised, there is really NO other option.
The war has thrown up an unexpected hero in the form of President Zelenskyy, who has not only managed to give the Russians a bloody nose, but has indeed gone into overdrive whipping up a media campaign to garner support, not just inside Ukraine but across the globe. The Ukrainian army supported by volunteers comprising its own nationals and those arriving from other countries, has given a spirited fight to the Russians. It has also used guerrilla tactics to destroy a large part of Russia’s advance and a sizeable number of officers and troops have been killed. According to Ukrainian estimates, more than 800 tanks and about 18000 odd troops have already been decimated. Even if only part of these numbers are true, it still puts paid the opinion that overrunning Ukraine would be a cakewalk for the Russian army. In the long run, the reputation of the Russian army to be a potent fighting force will certainly be tarnished, not to mention the inherent and collateral loss of morale in the troops, question marks on the leadership, and the domestic popularity of Putin himself. Already viewed by a sizeable part of Russians as an autocratic leader who is stifling dissent and debate at home, Putin will find it very hard to shove the losses under the carpet.
Reverberations of the war are being felt across economies globally. The rise in petroleum prices in the aftermath of sanctions against Russian gas and oil saw a desperate United States releasing a huge quantity from its strategic cache to stabilise prices. Spiralling food grain prices resulted from the abrupt stoppage of Russian and Ukrainian grains reaching other markets; losses to the aviation and tourism industries as a result of sanctions and airspace restrictions have only compounded the problems for these sectors still trying to limp back from the debilitating Covid restrictions; trans-continental banking operations were stymied due to the overnight sanctions against Russian banking entities; rise of alternate currencies such as crypto has seen an upsurge with the collapse of the Ruble’s value. All these are just the tip of the iceberg in a globalised world where the interconnections have rippling effects across sectors, and will probably continue to do so for quite some time to come.
South Asia is witnessing its own set of tremors in these turbulent times. China is trying to stem the resurgence of Covid in some of its important financial centres such as Shanghai. Post-Ukraine, there are apprehensions that China may consider a similar misadventure in Taiwan. The Chinese have already been flexing their military muscle over the last several months, especially in the areas of marine, aerospace, missile, and cyber capabilities. Pakistan has just seen the overthrow of its Prime Minister after weeks of high drama including constitutional and political crises which required intervention by its highest court. Needless to say, the Pakistani army remains very much in control, preferring to control things from behind a screen rather than its historically blatant way of doing so. In his last few days, the outgoing Prime Minister Imran Khan has repeatedly praised Indian foreign policy, which by association makes it very difficult for the next government to initiate any dialogue with India. Sri Lanka has just seen the collapse of its economy under a huge debt burden, a substantial portion owed to China. The island has been forced to approach the IMF for help, but before any such outside help arrives, it is seeing its biggest domestic crisis since the days of its civil war. Bhutan has lost its place in the Happiness rankings, possibly as a fallout of opening up the Himalayan kingdom over the last few years. In the middle of it all, India seems to be insulated so far, but faces criticism for its neutral stance on the Ukraine war. To be fair, it has exercised realpolitik to ensure its own requirements do not get affected by the turmoil. However, some amount of re-alignment or a wary approach to Indian strategic concerns is likely to occur in the future.
In all, very interesting, albeit turbulent times; the world is yet to see the end game of these events.
