Brexit Travails – Sharpening Divisions in the Isles?
As the world grappled with the resurgence of Covid-19, and focus remained on the war against the seemingly indomitable coronavirus, a couple of facts have received less than deserved attention, possibly escaping the attention of political scientists. The first was couched in the aftermath of the demise of Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh – namely, the apology extended by Sinn Fein leadership for the assassination of Lord Louis Mountbatten by the IRA. The second is the growing din for Scottish independence from the union that is the United Kingdom. The two may seem unconnected, but the future of the isles is being fashioned by these events, and their likely ramifications on the politics of the region.
As I write this, it happens to be the 104th anniversary of the Easter Rising of Ireland in 1916. The rebellion marked the huge nationalist feeling that swept Ireland and became the precursor to the massive support garnered by Sinn Fein. Subsequently, it led to the War of Independence and culminated in the Anglo-Irish Treaty partitioning the island into the Irish Free State, a Dominion of the British Commonwealth (which later became the Republic of Ireland) and the territory known as Northern Ireland, which continued to be a part of the United Kingdom. No doubt, it left the simmering discontent of the island having been partitioned. Decades later, in a period spanning almost thirty years, the emerald isle witnessed some of the ghastliest violence in the turmoil called ‘The Troubles’ in Ireland, including the assassination of Lord Mountbatten in 1979 by the ‘Provos’ or the Provisional Irish Republican Army, as it was called. The Provisional IRA’s political front, viz. Sinn Fein was gradually assimilated into the political process, and post the Good Friday Agreement in 1998, has gained heft in its own right in both parts of Ireland; in the 2017 Northern Ireland Assembly elections, it had only one seat less than the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), shares power with four ministerial berths in the executive, and holds seven of the 18 seats of Northern Ireland in the UK House of Commons. Simultaneously, it is the second largest party in the Republic of Ireland and its main opposition party. Sinn Fein opposed Northern Ireland leaving the European Union with the rest of the UK in the 2016 Brexit referendum, and immediately in its wake suggested another referendum on the reunification of Ireland. Mary Lou McDonald, the President of Sinn Fein since 2018, echoed this stance of the party in relation to the issues of a hard border coming up post-Brexit; effectively demanding a unified Ireland and as part of the EU. In the violence in Northern Ireland in the aftermath of Brexit, blame has been apportioned to the attendance of over 2000 mourners at the funeral of a former IRA cadre amidst Covid-19 restrictions, and failure to prosecute anyone. Under the terms of the Northern Ireland Protocol which came into existence in January 2021, the Irish Sea now forms a border as the UK has left the EU, but Northern Ireland continues to remain in the Single Market for goods, necessitating checks of goods at ports of entry, arriving from Great Britain. This has further exacerbated tensions and unleashed violence.
In its 2014 referendum for independence from the union, 55% of Scotland voted to remain in the UK. It was touted as being a settled issue by David Cameron, then Prime Minister. However, in the 2016 referendum for the exit of the UK from the EU, 62% of Scotland voted to remain but in the overall tally, 52% of the UK voted to leave. Despite the Scots’ will to remain as part of the EU, the UK pursued Brexit. The Scottish National Party (SNP) pushed for a second referendum on independence due to the change in circumstances, not least being Brexit. Nicola Sturgeon, First Minister of Scotland, secured the parliamentary approval required to pursue invoking a Section 30 order under the Scotland Act 1998, for a second referendum; the Prime Ministers in Downing Street have not shown an inclination to do that, the latest being Boris Johnson refusing its sanction. Ahead of the Scottish elections in May 2021, the SNP has promised to bring up the issue once again, even in the absence of a Section 30 order, allowing a second referendum for independence. In latest polls, the SNP has a huge 20% lead over its Conservative and Labour opponents; a victory for the SNP will inevitably throw up the issue of the second referendum, and consequently a debate on Scotland’s exit from the UK. The majority of people in favour of such a move seem to have based their choice on being part of the EU again.
So, as things stand, the UK has its hands full with trouble brewing in both Northern Ireland and Scotland. Sinn Fein has long tried to project its accommodative stance, a conciliatory façade – also in its bid to dissociate, or at least whitewash the memories of its violent origins with the IRA. To that end, and given its growing heft in both parts of Ireland, it is politically astute to apologise for the assassination of Lord Mountbatten at the height of ‘The Troubles’, focussing instead on an inclusive agenda. It may also well garner the support of fence-sitters including among the unionists who may feel compelled by the positives of being part of the EU (as it is 56% of Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU), the prospects of growth in development and trade, and mollified by the non-violent avatar of Sinn Fein.
Sturgeon’s demand for a referendum even in the absence of a Section 30 order, if the SNP were to maintain its decisive lead at the polls in May 2021, could trigger the larger debate of holding territories in the union against popular will. As recent years have suggested, divisions exist in opinion as to which direction should be taken, and at the very least, Brexit amplified these bringing them in full public view. The pandemic and its accompanying devastating effects on trade, tourism, peoples’ freedom of movement, and economies as a whole, have further sharpened these divides.
If indeed, such is the trajectory adopted by politics in Northern Ireland and Scotland, the region could see a lot of changes. Most of the scenarios seem to only spell trouble for Great Britain. Apart from the demand for independence based on economic choice and realities, the rise of the Celts on both sides of the Irish Sea could lead to significant decline in Britain’s strategic importance and dominance of political decision-making. Who can say, the world may see an independent Scotland and a unified Ireland, both part of the EU, in the near future? It will also strain an already beleaguered British economy, and the need for even more aggressively seeking bilateral trade agreements with other countries to tide over these voids. Long known as the proponent of divide-and-rule, Britain seems to be getting the proverbial taste of its own medicine.
