The term ‘Known
Unknowns’, hitherto fore unheard of in India, and definitely not in the Indian strategic
context, is a clarion call for Indian strategists to wake up to the reality of
a post modern scenario where the severity of multifarious situations poses new
and inexplicable dangers to the very sovereignty of the nation; if unheeded, it
threatens to annihilate the very concept of united India as we know it. An
initial look did surprise us of the extent to which the Indian establishment
chose to ignore or conveniently overlook such very real possibilities.
We try
and put down some thoughts garnered from this perspective; the factual information
has been gleaned from very public sources of information and nothing written in
succeeding paragraphs purports to be classified at all. In fact such is the
free flow of information in contemporary times that it is shocking at times how
“frog-in-the-well” our entire attitude has been; though equally encouraging is
the role being played by an ever increasingly aware media and the growth of
strong, democratic and independent thought which has an increasing influence on
public thought and policy & decision making.
Another imperative for
prompting such thought is that the world today is no longer a place where entire
countries can choose to exist in seeming isolation. Severally connected and
hinged economies often give rise to the term ‘shrinking world’, and not without
reason. Such has the interdependence of trade and commerce become that it is no
longer possible to survive singly. The other facet to this rule is the fact
that policies, not only foreign but domestic as well, need to be shaped and
re-shaped with each shift in the global tide. Often clarity of thought and
purpose is lost in the intertwining of so many factors contributing towards
fashioning the strategic and national aims of a country; this especially true
when the focus is on new concepts and fresh ideas. As in the post-crisis
business world, innovation seems to be the key word.
Concept of Known Unknowns and Relevance in the Indian Context
The concept of Known
Unknowns has been studied and written about by Nathan Freier for the US Army
War College. It is essentially unconventional strategic shocks in defence. Such
shocks that by their sheer strategic impact, surprise and the potential for
disruption and violence, they would demand the focused attention of defence
leadership, as well as the decisive employment of defence capabilities in
response. The US found 9/11 and the events after that catastrophe challenging
for its defence establishment, but according to Lt Col Freier, a strategically
dislocating surprise would be next, and just around the corner. And sure
enough, we have a global war against the Islamic State, which is now
threatening to turn into a new cold war between the US and Russia owing its
dimensional shift in Syria. What with so many imponderables as Iran, North
Korea, and even its failure in Afghanistan and its inability to deal with the
Taliban in frontier districts of Pakistan, could the ‘strategically dislocating
surprise’ come from this part of Asia? Could the stand off between India and
Pakistan, both nuclear states be the catalyst to reorient strategy, investment
and missions in so far as the US is concerned? Given that unconventional
challenges lie definitely outside the realm of traditional war fighting, does
not necessarily mean that it is non-violent, non-state, or unorganized.
Risks
to national security which may not be fully anticipated or predicted would thus
constitute Known Unknowns; that they exist can be conceived but yet they are
not being imagined or expected. Defence strategy usually faces the critical
flaws of being reactive in nature and lacking imagination. This is attributed
to the otherwise strict hierarchical controls owing to the nature of the job;
it however leaves strategy planning and decisions susceptible and vulnerable to
surprise. Aversion to institutional change is another key factor. Yet the Known
Unknowns stretch conventional wisdom to such an extent that it becomes
difficult to ferret out a likely and suitable response, whereas their broad and
fundamental implications rise and mature fast leaving little room for the
system to adjust itself to the strategic and inherent changes. Concepts face
the challenge of change and existing paradigms are questioned; prevailing
strategy and assumptions are undermined leaving strategists little choice but
to venture into uncharted territory.
What
does this concept mean for India? The relevance of such disruptive and
strategic shocks would find its roots in the very nature of India’s sub
continental environment and the rapidly changing global economic scenario,
which forces India to look into newer and unexpected areas of likely conflict.
Given the history of animosity that engulfs the country historically, it
becomes that much more a lucrative target for various sections of neighbouring
establishments. Also with the rapid economic growth of modern India and its
increasing clout in global affairs, it needs to forge new and meaningful
relationships to further strengthen and consolidate its own position on the
world stage. In drawing a parallel to the US, India has had its share of
challenges like 26/11 and every new day announces new stories of insurgent and
naxalite violence. China and Pakistan continue to be painful thorns in the
side, and with both neighbours taking a hostile stand, the security
establishment has its work cut out for it. Central Asia has always been
strategically important and in the last three decades has faced intense turmoil
with it being the new arena for wars, conflicts, socio-political changes and
mushrooming religious fundamentalists. Its proximity to India and the
vulnerability associated with it, should give a new focus to our policies, both
domestic and foreign. New avenues for meaningful dialogue need to be explored
and all available means of ensuring territorial integrity and the security of
Indian citizens will have to be undertaken. Above all, conceptual framework should
be reinforced with a strong military establishment, and a proactive doctrine.
Indian strategists will do well to always be on their toes, since most state
and non state antagonists are unlikely to change or just disappear; instead
they may find new and innovative means to bleed the Indian behemoth.
Points to Ponder for the Indian Political and Defence Establishments
What
is India’s geo-strategy? What are its
regional and global objectives? Is there focus on forming a coherent long term
strategy or are we just blundering our way about international diplomacy? All
these questions and more need to be answered by the Indian polity and
thereafter the defence hierarchy. Endemic to the Indian system where the
military functions as an arm of and under a civilian government, is the greater
role played by the polity and the bureaucracy, in formulating policies. The
defence establishment which implements these policies also needs to be given
greater autonomy as also an implicit faith imposed in their ability to function
apolitically, yet at the same instance provide valuable inputs to further
governmental policies. Such a move has historically has been viewed with
apprehension by the civilian establishment (and indeed, the sub-continent is
rife with enough examples, both Pakistan and Bangladesh being cases in point).
However this would also pave the way for flexibility and innovation in the
functioning of the defence forces and thereby reduce the chances of getting
shocked strategically!
In
the regional context of the sub-continent, we continue to face relentless
attack by subversive forces under various garbs. Does the fact that a country
which is not only one eighth of the Indian landmass, but has been carved out of
it, continues to implement strategy with impunity with the sole aim of bleeding
India, tell us something? Are we indeed unable to deal with this imbalance for almost
70 years? Where dialogue and diplomacy may not work due to the inherent nature
of the Pakistani mindset (it has always found itself threatened by India), can
we switch tracks and look at such an infusion of economics, that it will
becomes impossible for Pakistan to ignore the impact and therefore be forced to
change its policies, or at least reign in those non state players who work towards
subversion in Indian territory?
Where
China has had the liberty of implementing various policies to bring it to the
point of being an economic giant, India has been progressing too, albeit
ponderously. On the one hand is the vibrancy of the Indian democracy and on the
other is the lack of political will to implement measures for growth. These
have in fact worked to further China’s subversive strategies, giving it a
perfect platform to fuel naxalism inside Indian territory. Indeed, the growth
story in India sometimes seems to be despite the government, not because of it!
With its economic status well cemented, China also harbours ambitions of being
a global power militarily. To that end, it has made rapid strides in bringing
in technology and upgrading the fighting capabilities of its forces. It
postures more frequently in a threatening manner, based on its historic border
disputes with India. The recent spate of military/ naval posturing in the
Indian Ocean region, the South China Sea, and the upcoming China-Pakistan
Economic Corridor or the new Silk Route, are all signs of muscles being flexed
by the Chinese dragon. However there seems to be little or no response and
definitely a complete lack of coherent and well thought out strategy on our
part. This is further taken as a sign of weakness and exploited increasingly.
Alarming reports suggest that China has managed to slowly extend its hold over
disputed border territory. Its increasing military clout is evident from its
growing presence in the Indian Ocean which is essential to China’s projection
of its power, but also a potential threat to Indian interests. What are we
doing about these issues? At the end of the day, we do not have any cogent long
term strategy in place and only now and very slowly waking up and gearing
ourselves for a potential conflict with China. In its quest for energy and
petroleum globally, China seems to succeed much more than does India. The
infusion of Chinese funds into African economies and the number of successful
bids in Central Asia and Africa for oilfields, is surely putting China in a
more secure position by the day. Even the conduct of the Beijing Olympics in
2008 was meant to announce its arrival on the global stage. Surely these issues
need to be examined.
Traditionally
India held its non aligned status (but with a dash of convenience thrown in)
through the Cold War years. With the break up of the USSR and the US emerging
as the single and uncontested global hegemon, India found itself drawn into a
closer relationship with the US. On its part the US also cannot ignore the
rapid growth of Indian economy and has shown all signs of positive engagement
with us. Yet, as they say in diplomat-speak, ‘There are no permanent friends,
only permanent interests’. Contradictory to its engagement with India, the US
continues to indirectly fuel conflict in the sub-continent through its policies
in Pakistan and Afghanistan. To be fair to the US, it is unable to deal with
its own creation (yet again!) and therefore cannot afford the collapse of the
Pakistani establishment (and the nuclear dimension to boot!) and the return of
the Taliban in Afghanistan. It then becomes incumbent on India to initiate
positive relations by whatever means possible. Ultimately, Indian interests
must be supreme for India and going by the analogy of permanent interests, it
too should re-examine all avenues for its growth, security and consolidation of
status. Post the economic meltdown in 2008 the US found itself more and more dependent
on economies with strong growth. And what better candidate than a democracy
(surrounded by all other forms of governance) with tremendous prospects in the
foreseeable future. The question therefore is where are we headed in our
relations with the US? Can all these positives not be leveraged to bring about
a change in our regional equations? Policies may not change overnight, but
concerted efforts would at least pave the way for a brighter future.
Indian capabilities both overt
and covert face the prospect of erosion due to the lack of coherent long term
strategies and egoist polity and bureaucracy, which resists the very idea of
fresh infusion in thought processes. A paradigm shift in our outlook based on
where our national interests lie is essential to the continued economic success
and to obviate any possibility of attacks on our security and territorial
integrity. It is therefore of paramount importance that a proactive and
consistently innovative approach be adopted to geo-strategic concerns. Such a
move would invariably herald the renaissance of India.
Authors : Amitabh
Hoskote, PHD (Development & Conflict Studies) & Vishakha Amitabh
Hoskote, MA, MPHIL (International Relations, Political Science &
Development Communication)
