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Strategic Thinkers, Social Science Researchers, writing on Geopolitics, International Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military Affairs. All views and opinions on the blog are personal. Follow Blog hawkeyereport.blogspot.in

July 14, 2016

The Dichotomy of the Discourse in Jammu & Kashmir



The land sees violence just as matter-of-factly as most others see peace. It is marred by almost daily curfews and protests involving  hundreds of thousands pouring out onto the streets. Incidents of violent stone pelting in response to gun-toting armed forces result in clampdown by the machinery of the state. This is Jammu and Kashmir today ; despite the complete weight  of the establishment, violence has become a way of life.


One of Asia’s apparently  inveterate  and almost ceaseless  conflict has no political  solution in sight. Mainstream political parties at both regional and national level are perceived as having no inclination towards resolution; Instead they pay lip service in times of uneasy calm doing little or nothing to seek dialogue with the stakeholders. The rhetoric  remains the same, only the faces espousing the rhetoric change from one election to another.

This has seen growing clamour from sections of civil society, academicians and indeed all right thinking individuals, shifting the focus inexorably to a  questioning of New Delhi ’ s policy on Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) – is it simply erroneous or impervious to the demands of the times?. Extant literature has ample proof of the utter disinterest that the state machinery has shown in any move towards resolution . As is often quoted mindless suppression by the state cannot make for an ideal climate of dialogue. Even if one discards Pakistan’s  baseless claims on the state of J&K it is simply impossible to ignore a continuous and ever increasing demand for self determination. The youth fighting as armed militants today were not even born when trouble erupted in 1989-1990 but they have definitely  grown up in a climate of sheer alienation, fear hatred and animosity towards the establishment which is unfortunately  and largely denoted by the humongous presence of the Armed forces in the state. What no one has bothered  to acknowledge are the aspirations of this youth, a constituency  equally capable of swinging elections as of swinging  public opinion. This is a generation which is adept at use of social media and the power of the Internet and indeed , do so, despite severe clamp downs by the government.
J&K’s  chequered history from the inception of the independent countries of India and Pakistan  in 1947 has little meaning for the generation of today. However, what does make a difference is regimented memory ( or in this case folklore ). More than four decades or repeated decimation and abrogation of the electoral process coupled with slow institutional decay , definitely  makes for great folklore ! What does make a difference is the word -of mouth passage of information outlining the transition from the pro India times of the 40’s,  50’s and  60’s to the eruption of militancy in the 1990’s  to outright rebellion against Indian control in the first decade and half of the new millennium. This folklore is what moulds the minds of the youth today largely focusing on the harsh control exerted by the state through its armed forces.
Needless to say the whole process has been generously aided and abetted by Pakistan in the garb of a symbolic unity with the people of J&K . All the while, it has actually been trying to wrest  control of J&K from India. Pakistan realised from its earlier futile attempts that the option is not possible militarily (Pakistan has fought four wars with India with the core issue of J&K). It has therefore adopted the via-media of a hybrid conflict meant to slowly bleed India and keep its conventional forces tied down in the bargain. In the meantime the Pakistani establishment has carefully downplayed it’s own legacy of violence in the part of J&K controlled by it , known as Pakistan Occupied Kashmir  (POK) or Azad Kashmir; depending on which side of the fence you are on.


The recent killing of 22 year old Hizb-ul-Mujahideen operative Burhan Wani has once again seen  large scale violence erupting across the state. Interestingly the incident has numerous facets meriting attention and analysis. First amongst those is how the persona  of Burhan Wani  was built up. Enough investigative, analytical and anecdotal evidence exists for us to piece together this information. 




Wani was the son of Muzaffar Ahmed Wani and younger sibling of Khalid  Wani of Tral in South Kashmir. As a young boy apparently  good at his studies , he seems to have been exposed to the extreme measures adopted by the Armed forces in the case of his elder brother and his father. Following the 2008 and 2010  suppression of youth protests, Wani emerged on social media as the face of militancy , posting pictures of himself and his friends in combat fatigues with an open display of assault rifles and other weapons. Where the Armed forces saw him as a terrorist , popular opinion rapidly built up by social media , deemed him as the face of youthful aspirations.

The second facet meriting  analysis is the increasing role of social media in formulating public opinion. With the near universal outreach of social media platforms it is a dangerous tool in the wrong hands. Similar popularising of extremist views has been seen in the case of Islamic State in the middle east. This discourse tends to veer towards the level of control that state agencies must exert on activities  of non-state actors on social media platforms.
The third facet is the role of mainstream print and telecast media. In the instance of the Wani killing , an increasing focus has been on keeping the J&K issue artificially stoked in a bid to garner Television Rating Points (TRP). In the past too , the media has not shown a maturity in dealing with such news. Similarly government  sources place the blame squarely on the Media for not amply highlighting measures initiated by the government to resolve the contentious  issue. In either case , it has served to put a blot on the integrity and unbiased reporting by the media.
Stuck amidst the chaos, are the Armed forces, tasked to maintain peace at all costs. They have been granted sweeping powers under the Public Safety Act ( PSA) and the controversial Armed Forces Special Powers Act ( AFSPA) . Both these are perceived as draconian by the public opinion but essential by the Armed forces tasked to fight armed terrorists who are not bound by any code of ethics. The Armed forces are also unable to counter onslaught of media and social media generated hyperbole. The tremendous experience garnered by the Armed forces by constantly having an ear to the ground could have been gainfully utilised to ensure a transition to post conflict transformation. In practice , this is not so , indeed the Armed forces are often ignored in the play between whimsical political interests and bureaucratic tangles. As a result the Armed forces are forced to maintain a stony faced silence in a conflict that is bleeding their ability to fight conventional opponents.
Most unbiased writers have written scathing articles , ranging from the sarcastic to outrightly questioning and targeting the flawed policies followed by the establishment. Successive governments have ignored the largest stakeholders in a peace process- all those who benefit  from a return to normalcy and a resurgence in tourism, once considered the biggest industry in J&K. A case in point of how political interests overtake other compulsions is the role of Mehbooba Mufti  in the 2010 protests. She was  then, an opposition leader; she is today the Chief Minister of the State when it is witnessing a resurrection of the same violence. The fact remains that the credibility of all mainstream political parties is at an all time low. Neither do they have leaders who by sheer force of personality can steer public opinion away from violence ; nor do they have policies to stem a growing alienation.  With rapidly escalating tensions, the situation may well spiral out of control. Political rhetoric dwelling on peace has failed the test of Vox Populi. 







Images courtesy: Google images


July 13, 2016

The South China Sea Imbroglio



The ruling of an international  tribunal at the Permanent  Court of Arbitration  ( PCA) yesterday has finally  and decisively pronounced a verdict on the legality of China's position in the South China Sea.
Though China has refused to be part of the proceedings claiming that the matter pertains to its territorial waters or maritime borders and hence out of the purview of the PCA, the Phillipines managed to ask for an assessment  of its own sovereign rights, jurisdiction over its maritime entitlements, and the validity of China's nine-dash-line claim under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea ( UNCLOS).
Very categorically, the ruling has it that there exists no legal basis for China's claims to historic rights to resources within its nine-dash-line. Further it says China has aggravated the dispute and violated the Phillipines' sovereign rights by its construction  of artificial islands and interference with fishing and energy exploration. This brings us to the interesting question of future positions of various players.

The Phillipines : Though it may not be in any state to challenge China militarily, the Phillipines  has successfully  staged a diplomatic coup  and has sound legal backing for future claims or disputes in the area.With the mercurial Duterte now the President of the Phillipines  we my see further action on this front.


China : The dragon does not seem overtly concerned and with the kind of construction activity and setting up of military basis, is not likely to now rescind its position. Having gone from strength to strength economically and militarily, China does not need any international  approval that it used to seek in the past. Overall it may not make very substantial difference to China's stance, but it will have to deal with greater resolve and antagonism on the part of other stakeholders.

Other Littoral States : This decision will certainly boost the claims of other littoral states as also give them moral and legal ascendancy.

United States : The US is now in a stronger legal position to bring to bear pressure on China in its dealing with the South China Sea Imbroglio. Though this may not be sufficient to make any difference in actual terms, the US  will be on a moral high ground when it takes up military and naval exercises in the area along with countries such as the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and South Korea.

July 06, 2016

Intentional or just a gaffe? You Decide



Intentional or just a gaffe?-----You decide






Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu is visiting four African states- Uganda, Kenya, Rwanda and Ethiopia. The visit is being hailed as a landmark, Netanyahu being the first Israeli PM to do so in 50 years. The focus of the trip was to be the universal challenge of Islamic terrorism, which is threatening the African continent as well, Al Shahab and Boko Haram being the spearheads. Ostensibly, Israel and many African states want to make common cause of it in a bid to defeat it before it reaches annihilating proportions.



It also marks the anniversary of the famous Entebbe raid in July 1976. Israel mounted an operation more than 2300 miles from its homeland to free more than 100 hostages, the majority being Israeli, being held by Pro-Palestine hijackers at an abandoned airport terminal at Entebbe, with the tacit support of Ugandan dictator Idi Amin. In the operation that followed, the only thing that marred an otherwise successful and extremely well planned and executed operation, was the death of one Israeli soldier. His name was Yonatan Netanyahu, the elder brother of the present PM of Israel.



The visit was doubly moving for the Israeli PM, which he mentioned in his speech, "This is a deeply moving day for me. Forty years ago they landed in the dead of night in a country led by a brutal dictator who gave refuge to terrorists. Today we landed in broad daylight in a friendly country led by a president who fights terrorists.”



What followed in the speech by Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni took the world by surprise and shock. In what is being claimed to be a gaffe, Museveni repeatedly referred to Israel as Palestine. To quote him, "The sad event, 40 years ago, turned into another bond linking Palestine to Africa". The issue has been further complicated by a tweet by one of the President's spokesperson, saying that it was not a slip, but that he was just referring to the entire region known as Palestine.



Though Benjamin Netanyahu did not flinch on the spot, Israeli radio stations cut off the broadcast after Museveni's repeated references to Palestine.



It is well known that Israel supported many African states in their fledgling days of freedom from colonial yoke. It is also equally well known that the same states cut their ties with Israel in the 1970s after becoming recipients of Arab aid.



In light of the many years of an apparently fruitful relationship with the Arabs, were Museveni's utterances just a gaffe or intentional to balance the scales with the Arabs?



You decide.

Jumbo--Not just an Elephant Mr. Defence Minister
















Wing Commander Jumbo Majumdar (WW II veteran ) getting the prestigious flying cross

World War II veteran Wing Commander Jumbo Majumdar's Flying cross and other prestigious medals had become a bone of contention between the IAF and the Ministry of Defence when the latter refused to shell out INR 28 lakhs to retrieve the medals from UK based auction house Morton and Eden.
The IAF will be using internal funds and has decided to give Jumbo his due share of respect by putting his DFC and other belongings on display at the AFM.

Of course Mr. Defence Minister these medals are national treasure and we fail to understand the rationale behind such a move. You Mr. Minister have all the time to travel in private guarded jets , talk about creating terrorists to deal with terrorist and ignore the human face of the men who guard our skies , homeland territory and our waters.
Jumbo's son Sailen has said that he also has the crucifix that his paternal grandmother Jonaki Agnes Penelope Majumdar (nee Bonnerjee) had made from the metal of the ill-fated Hurricane that Jumbo crashed in. 
There is also a note book in which Jumbo had written very personal and philosophical comments about his role in World War 2. 
I quite agree with Sailen when he says these treasures should not be binned or left in the drawers till eternity. 21 gun salute to you Mr. Defence Minister for giving such a heroic welcome to the father of modern Indian Air Force."Jumbo's contribution during the Second World War both in Burma and in the Normandy Campaigns has been acknowledged in professional circles. He was the first and the only IAF pilot to be awarded DFC and Bar. Having understood the importance of Air Power at a very early age, he worked relentlessly to build a strong Air Force for India. Jumbo led from the front by personal example and worked relentlessly to lay the foundation of the IAF. His spirit shall live as long as there are young men to take up the challenge of his legacy, and the trail of glory shall be remembered and cherished by the IAF forever."- The Indian Air Force in a statement made to a private news channel 
Not the first time. Certainly not the last. The museums too are the babies of the officers in-charge.whims and fancies...and service to the nation.
National Shame.

Engaging Indonesia








The nation- President-J Widodo


Head of state and head of government, commander-in-chief of the Indonesian National Armed Forces, and the director of domestic governance, policy-making, and foreign affairs.

 Population of 258 million, 4th most populous nation

 Situated between Indian & Pacific Ocean

Archipelago comprising 13,466 islands

Coastline of 54,716 kilometres

 Sits at South East Asia’s maritime chokepoint- Strait of Malacca

Includes 3 land borders

  • § Timor-Leste : 228 kilometres
  • § Malaysia : 1,782 kilometres.
  • § Papua New Guinea : 820 kilometres 

· Muslim majority nation

· Java comprises half of Indonesia’s population

· largest – and politically dominant – ethnic group are the Javanese.

· Unitary presidential constitutional republic

· Following the resignation of President Suharto in 1998, Indonesian political and governmental structures have undergone major reforms.

• Founding member of ASEAN & G 20

• Economy is the world's 16th largest by nominal GDP and the 8th largest by GDP at PPP.

• Maintained a non aligned position

• Plays active role in Middle East

• Rope walk balance between Washington and Beijing

• Faces dispute with China over Natuna territorial waters

• Separatist movements in Aceh & Papua provinces with armed conflict


Strategic Context


• Lingering tensions and suspicions and unresolved ethnic and territorial disputes pose a serious impediment to expanded intra-ASEAN defense cooperation.


Threat- Indonesia-based Jemaah Islamiyah (JI). other lesser actors include laskar Jihad, hizbullah front, laskar mujahidan, and Islamic Defenders front (fPI), the latter being more in the category of “violent moralists” rather than terrorists.


In the past, there have been international connections with the abu sayyaf group in the Philippines, which included training and funding.


• The key issue, however, is that threat perceptions of China differ—at one end of the spectrum the Philippines perceives the threat as immediate and is seeking to develop an ASEAN consensus in opposition to Chinese assertiveness






Government Set up


• Indonesia is a Republic with Unitary Presidential system

• President is Head of State, Head of Government System and Commander in Chief of Armed forces

• People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) outlines state policies with following

– Peoples Representative Council

– Regional Representative Council

• Army was formed during Indonesian National Revolution

• Indonesian National Armed Forces -Tentara Nasional Indonesia, TNI comprises of

– Army (TNI-AD)

– Navy (TNI-AL)

– Indonesian Marine Corps (Korps Marinir)

– Air Force (TNI-AU).


                                                               Stakeholders in Defence

•Committee of the Defence Industry (KKIP, Komite Kebijakan Industri Pertahanan) chaired by the President is fulcrum of Defence issues.





                                        Bilateral Defense Cooperation Agreement


With Malaysia - Regular joint military exercises , Military information exchanges

•Possible use of each other’s military facilities for maintenance & repair.

With U.S - Regular Joint military exercises

State policy situates the indigenous defence industry within the ambit of other prominent industries and ministries

State continues to be main source of funding by providing safety nets through loan provisions and credit guarantees to banks / financial institution

Market intervention only when necessary, for example by providing preferential tariffs for products and fiscal incentives such as free imports and taxes

•Preference for indigenous evident through obligatory requirements for all stakeholders (government defence and security institutions) within Indonesia to buy and use domestic-made weapon systems

Rigid obligation for local strategic industry engagement in the form of a minimum 85 per cent of countertrade and 35 percent of offset that periodically be increased by 10 percent every 5 years


                                                             Foreign Defence Companies


BAE Systems riding on UK’s expressed willingness to deepen relations with Indonesian counterparts

Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering (DSME), a South Korea company, supplying Indonesian Navy three type 209/1200 diesel-electric attack submarines by 2020 – a contract worth US$1.07 billion

Ongoing deal with South Korea for development of KF-X fighter, with viable technology transfers



                                                         Defence Industry in Indonesia


Main Weapon Industry


–PT Dirgantara

–PT Pindad (Perindustrian Angkatan Darat/Indonesia Arms Manufacturer)

–PT Pal Indonesia,

Main Component and Support Industry 


–PT Telekomunikasi (INTI)

–PT Len Industry

Supportive Logistic and spare part Industry


–PT Barata Indonesia

–PT Boma Bisma Indra (BBI)

–PT Dahana

–PT Kereta Api (INKA)


Indonesia’s defense policy is based on four documents: Grand Strategy 2008, Defense Doctrine 2008, Defense Intelligence Estimate 2008 and Defense Posture 2024.


•New Defence policy seeks to create a modern, integrated armed forces that is able to anticipate security challenges in the 21st century.


•Indonesia’s foreign policy is based on doctrine of “one thousand friends, zero enemies”, and “dynamic equilibrium”.

The defense policy represents the defense realism paradigm

Ongoing Military reform seeks to remove obsolete military technologies from Indonesia’s weapons system and implement a modernization program to create a Minimal Essential Force (MEF) by 2024 for Indonesia


•MEF 2024 to serve as transition force until Indonesia is able to initiate a military innovation program that will try to adopt the most advanced military technology to start a revolution in military affairs that will transform TNI into an agile force of the 21st century.


•Mission MEF 2024 supported by budgetary grant of 1% of GDP by 2014 and 2% of GDP by 2020



 Military Modernisation


•Minimal Essential Force MEF 2024 will be mainly DEFENSIVE in nature and rely on forward deployment especially of border divisions, naval patrol, as well as air control

•Beyond MEF 2014, create military capabilities for deployment of OFFENSIVE and provocative forces to Indonesia’s border areas.

•To achieve this force, Indonesia will allocate 2.5-3 percent of GDP each year until this force is established between 2024 and 2029

•Indonesia will implement long-term modernization and arms acquisition programs

To support these programs, 3.5-4 percent of GDP will be allocated to support the defense budget until this force is achieved in 2050


Indonesia has already acquired the following:


Six Russian Sukhoi Su-30MK2s, completing a squadron of advanced air-superiority fighters consisting of sixteen Su-27 SKM and Su-30 MK2 jets, 16 new South Korean-made T-50i jet fighters ,Dozens of F-16 and Su-35 fighters,Advanced Air Defence Systems from Thales,Boeing AH-64 Apache Longbow gunship helicopters,German Leopard Tanks


Country’s 2010 Strategic Defence Plan for MEF 2024 include, albeit unrealistically, 274-ship ‘green-water navy’ ,10 fighter squadrons ,12 new diesel–electric submarines


Indonesian Air Force hopes to start replacement of the F-5 fighters under 2015 to 2020 strategic plan

Air Force (TNI-AU) has several companies that are competing for its fighter jet program.  Rafale F-16 C/D Block 60 etc


The Media in Indonesia

Indonesia has gained a reputation as the social media capital of the world

• Indonesia is among Facebook’s and Twitter’s largest global markets

• Indonesians are amongst most active users of social networking

• Nearly nine out of every 10 internet users in Indonesia regularly use a social network

• Indonesians make an estimated 6 billion views per month on social networks.

• Unsurprisingly, younger people dominate the social media user bases

• 75% of Facebook users in Indonesia access the site via their mobile phone

• Facebook has around 47 million users in Indonesia

• Twitter has close to 30 million users

• Media generally takes a cautious, self-censoring stand

• No constitutional guarantee for a free press

• Now revoked, Press Law 21 of 1982 defined duty of the press as "strengthening national unity and cohesion”

• 1999 Habibie’s liberal press law provided protection for the print media

• According to some observers, Indonesian media is plagued by "envelope journalism", where a payment could be made for a favorable story or for withholding information

• Lembaga Kantor Berita Nasional (National News Agency Institute, LKBN) or ANTARA acts as official news agency

• Other players include Kantorberita Nasional Indonesia (Indonesian National News Bureau, KNI)

Stories that can work

• Low cost acquisitions

• Investments by OEM partners in Indonesian industry

• Partnership with indigenous defense industry

• Defence policy and offshoots

• Business partnerships that support strategic ambitions

Media would be wary of anything that can be stretched to compromising “national unity and cohesion”













Engaging Thailand: The Challenge of communicating with a country that runs on Military Power


                   Thailand : The Defence Media  Matrix

•       A Quick Snapshot of why the Media plays a key role in:
–      Influencing Government decisions (Aircraft technology transfer program, Ground Combat systems, Fighter EW Radar systems,)
–      Bridging communication between Ministries
–      Playing the traditional watchdog role
Providing endorsement that enables Government decisions Retards or reverses decision making (e.g. Artillery acquisitions
The Military Context
•       Thai military planning, procurement & national security concerns are largely political in nature.
•       Strategic decisions on defence undergo political scrutiny before being implemented on paper.
•       Thai military has always played a dominating role in key government decisions regarding defence and security.
•       Individual defence agencies work on separate plans for force modernisation, which are discussed in parliament
•       Muslim inspired Insurgency and counter insurgency operations necessitated  force modernisation.
•       Confrontation and continued conflict delayed defence acquisition plans as well.
•       Thailand has been procuring defence systems largely to thwart attacks , homeland protection and guarding its maritime and air spaces-i.e conventional warfare
•       In the recent years budget cut backs have affected defence spending in Thailand.
•       Financial crisis of the 1990’s in the region led to low spending on defence & security
•       Increasing economic relationship with the US and the increasing American perception of India as a stable partner has made the relationship both more open and, at the same time, leveraged in favour of the US.
•       In a sense, India may well be nudged over a period of time to balance out its IT revenues and migration of jobs to India with arms purchases from the US that would keep conservative Senators off the administration’s back. There would also be a fair amount of pay-offs expected for US steering India’s re-admission to the Nuclear Club as a NWS. As of now, India’s reluctance to do so has dampened relationships.
•       An underlying theme across Indian purchases has been the emphasis on self-reliance, best exemplified in its missile program and worst executed in the MBT project as also the LCA Program.
•       The current focus on partnership between Indian firms and defence manufacturers is a continuation of the need to address the basic sense of inadequacy arising from a poor defence industry.
•       Partnerships, therefore, will be well received and regarded as national achievements.
•       That said, the IAF and the defence analysts have a fairly poor opinion of indigenous efforts, including the LCA.

The Role of Media In Impacting Decision Making
The Government
•       The Indian Government System is based on a combination of the US and UK: A Federal System combined with a Parliamentary System.
•       One consequence of the British Parliamentary system is that different arms of the government tend to operate in silos.
•       When the Government is weak at the top or allows each arm to function as per its best judgment – as it does now – there is little communication between the different arms of the government.

The Civil Services
·         Constitutional protection.
·         Political neutrality.
·         Permanency.
·         Anonymity
·         Recruitment based on merit

The administrative structure of the Government of India
(The roles of the various Ministries are defined as per the Rules of Business)



•       The “exclusive” character of the Civil Services also implies a sense of “right to rule” that invariably clashes with its dominance over the Military.
•       Consequently, the armed forces take recourse to media – specially digital media --- to create space for itself in the civil-military “relationship”.
•       Access to armed forces range from formal to nominal. The only Military-Industrial complex is Government/Public Sector led.
•       The Armed Forces are subservient to the Political system: Not allowed to speak; no opportunity to be heard except in extremely limited fashion. Even the Army Chief cant get his age corrected.
•       The Media is the only format of both formal and non-formal communication between the armed forces and the government: LCA, MBT, Missile Programmes et al.
•       As a result of Bofors, the political class shies away from debating defence or getting too involved in scrutinizing programs for fear of being charged with being hand maidens of one or the other Global Defence supplier.
•       Defence continues to be core sector which draws high media attention for a variety of reasons.
•       The frequency and intensity of reporting across multiple dimensions is fairly high in Defence media.
•       General news dailies and television devote moderate space and footage but interest tends to peak around scandals
•       A large share of Indian Defence communication from the government and the armed forces – to the public and to each other -- are carried forth through the print media.
•       The press plays an important role in the communication with the Ministry of Defence and the Armed Forces.
•       The military requirements of the nation are expressed through the media.
•       News of selection and rejection is carried first by the press, before it even reaches the knowledge of those involved. (Sometimes, within the Government! The External Affairs was most miffed that it never got to know of the MMRCA short list!)
•       The Story is India first, India next and India last.
•       Even global data of relevance must be interpreted in the Indian context

The stories that work in India:
•       Large acquisitions
•       Key Defence Projects
•       Large scale Investment
•       Mergers & Acquisition
•       National security impact
•       Defence and Foreign Strategy
•       Technology: Specially foreign sourced
•       New paradigms with Indian security relevance
•       Large brands, Global CEOs, celebrities
•       Large India presence
•       Indian policy
•       Impact on macro economy

The stories that don’t:
–      Global stories with no particular India anchor
–      Achievements in other countries
–      Global technologies with no particular Indian context
–      Lack of a clearly articulated India gameplan
–      Small news brands, small profiles
–      Being a global brand is not enough
–      Small business deals, MoUs

•       Therefore, two simple conclusions:
–      Indian Media is not simply a news distributor. It is a part of the decision making process.
–      Global news, views, websites, activities are irrelevant. Become a participant in the decision making process by creating opportunities through the media.






July 05, 2016

On Brexit and its Implications- The curious case of Britain, Europe, NATO & Russia




Pic Courtsey- www.huffingpost.co.uk

The world was stunned by the ‘Brexit’ vote leading to extreme reactions across the global political and economic spectrum. In the ongoing debate some clear conclusions have emerged.


1.       Britain itself-The markets have shown how incendiary the prospect of Brexit is. Coupled with the immediate fall of the pound and the long term consequences of no more Euro-aid being pumped into Britain, even ordinary people who may not fully understand the economic implications have begun to comprehend the significance of this blunder. Politically Britain itself is in tatters with virtually no clarity on who is going to lead it through the exiting process and the years to come. One clear corollary is of course the failure of direct democracy as an option. Representative democracy may be slower but definitely more balanced. (Is this a case in point for seekers of referendums in other parts of the world?)
 Both Scotland and Northern Ireland have heard rumbles of extreme dissent, going to the point of breaking away from the United Kingdom. If this indeed transpires, needless to stress on the impact on Britain as a powerful nation. Socially as well the country sees new chasms emerging in the aftermath of the vote. Overall a grim situation!
2.       Europe- Faced with the prospect of an EU without the UK, with increasing immigration leading to ethno cultural differences, Europe may well see a ‘Frexit’. It will leave an EU without a single counter to Germany, reminiscent of the last century? In that case, is there a distinct possibility of an emerging German hegemon?

3.       NATO’s significance- In the reduced EU, NATO’s significance becomes that much more; however the question is “will NATO remain as formidable as it is?” With the US Republican presumptive nominee Donald Trump denouncing NATO as a dinosaur serious implications arise in case of a Republican victory in November. Growing Russian belligerence in the eastern extreme of Europe, has forced NATO to drastically increase its strength in Poland (ongoing military exercises this week) and the eastern republics of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. These republics face a serious problem with huge ethnic Russian populations and have seen the effects in Crimea (Ukraine c 2014). Will NATO be able to sustain this increased deployment in view of the uncertainty prevailing over Europe and the US?


4.       Russia- Of course Russia has been a gleeful spectator of the turn of events seeing tremendous opportunity for the erosion of the EU’s success and strengthening its own position in Eastern Europe. In the eventuality that Europe and by association NATO becomes weaker, it leads to the spectre of Russian incursions in eastern Europe as well as an increased grandstanding in the conflict in the Middle east. Interesting times ahead!!