What Trump has brought onto the world #IranUSIsrael

What #TrumpEra has brought onto the world #Iran #US #Israel  

 

Sharing Prof Jeffrey Sachs' analysis

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZRt9xR1df3I #Economic_Collapse #anarchy

 

Watch this space for updates!

 

Sachs' #doomsday prediction? Can the world live through this one? #IranIsraelUS #realitycheck

Sachs' #doomsday prediction? Can the world live through this one? #IranIsraelUS #realitycheck

 

 Professor Sachs' prediction - we are at the brink of World War III.

Sharing the video link to the interview:

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DeRETBWnNWA&t=3s 

An inflection point, to say the least.

Keep watching this space for updates!

Some Pertinent Questions on #EpicFury & #RoaringLion

 Another day of the war in West Asia, showing no signs of either a quick resolution or any slackening in the ongoing military operations from both sides. More death and destruction raining from the skies. More pain inflicted on millions of people in the region, as well as millions of people around the world, indirectly affected by a war they have nothing to do with. Another day of huge financial losses, stock market tumbles, and increased volatility in multiple sectors of economies worldwide. 

Some pertinent questions on the military-political aspects stemming from #EpicFury & #RoaringLion:

1. Is the campaign proceeding according to a plan?

Multiple and contradictory statements by administration officials in the US and Israel put a big question mark on whether the operations were actually undertaken with some concrete plans? Arguments on #StrategicDeterrence #EnergyLeverage #GrandStrategy #StrategicDepth are only as good as the reasoning and logic behind them. They begin to sound specious when leadership contradictions emerge, time planning is revised to suit the moment of facing a questioning audience, and no firm answers are available to aims and objectives of operations, especially military in nature.

(And to answer an unspoken one - yes the world does need answers. Because it is the global population which is facing the brunt of actions in West Asia).

2.  Are drones the new go-to option for equalising the asymmetry of warfare between unequal adversaries?

Evident from the manner in which drones are being utilised by Iran, they have emerged as relatively inexpensive to manufacture, they can be amassed for use in swarms and waves relentlessly causing attrition, are effective against expensive hi-tech deployed by the superior enemy, and have a much lower material and human cost attached to their use. Their retaliatory usage lends less escalation pressure to operational matrices, simultaneous to their effective use in high numbers, and fewer cost-effective counter mechanisms. While so far not used in fully autonomous modes, their usage is likely to pervade all domains of warfare in the near future as dynamic utilisations are arrived at. 

3. The attack on the IRIS Dena in international waters in the IOR.

What is the sanctity of multilateralism, and hence multilateral exercises such as the International Fleet Review? Is attack on a vessel returning to home port, in a non-combat mode, justified? If any vessel conducting itself in a "peace protocol" as such exercises demand, then its destruction, that too by a nuclear submarine, not only sounds beyond justification, it begets allegations of deliberate targeting of a virtual non-combatant. Finally, what manner of intelligence was responsible for the attack, and where did it originate? 

4. What was the causus belli for the US-Israel offensive? 

Did the ostensible vulnerability of the regime in Iran, following massive protests, responsible for the timing of the war?  If Iran's nuclear strength was responsible, then what was the previous year's offensive meant for - especially so, since its stated aims were achieved, according to, no less than the US President. If the US intends to undertake regime change, air strikes are not going to achieve it; hence, if boots on the ground will ultimately be required, then the whole US posture of withdrawing from external and "forever" wars, seems to be a farce.  Finally, if none of these, then what is the world expected to accept it as - military adventurism? 

5.  Is this war making any difference to China?

In the geopolitical struggle between the US and China, the war in Iran is seen as another pain point (after Venezuela's example) for China, especially its energy security, being dependent on the oil and gas from the Gulf for 50-60% of its requirements. To that extent, how long before China engages means to secure the supply of oil from the region? Will naval escorts for tankers suffice? Or will this mean China's entry in to the conflict?
On the other hand, contemporary conflicts are being used by China as test-beds for emerging technologies from Chinese incubators, with their real test under combat conditions, at little cost to China itself, or without it having to enter the fray.
War materiel expenditures are reducing stockpiles of the US, possibly at rates that it may not be able to replenish so speedily. Will the war therefore, indirectly work in favour of China?

6.  Will this war and the actions of US-Israel prove to be precedents to other conflict flashpoints?

Scant regard for rules-based international order is evident from the disdain exhibited by the US in not consulting even its allies, leave alone the UN sanctifying its actions. This hubris unfortunately comes at a cost, and may be cited as precedent for future attacks on other countries, or killing of heads of states. Instantaneously the examples of Ukraine and Taiwan come to mind; a belligerent Russia and China, should they choose to adopt the same route, would have benefit of precedent.  

7. How will the Gulf states react?

Iran's attacks on first, the US bases in host countries, followed by attacks on oil infrastructure and pipelines in the larger middle East, is indicative of it spreading an enlarging choke around strategic reserves, ensuring depletion, followed by a continuous and sustained collapse of supply. Even if the GCC states ignore the attacks on US bases, will they be able to indefinitely ignore the noose around their supply lines? Apart from the havoc wreaked on the rest of the world's oil and energy security, the GCC states' own economies will buckle under the absence of petrodollar inflows. In the eventuality, how long before they exit the alliance with the US? 

8. How long will the world continue to suffer for America's actions? (alongside, how long will Israel's flagrant and blatant violations of the rules-based order be ignored by the rest of the world?)

If the war continues for "3-4 weeks", as casually mentioned by the US President, it has cascading effects on Oil and gas prices, food production and supplies, manufacturing, airlines, shipping, tourism and hospitality industry. Currency fluctuations will ruin the financial bases of many small economies, and make huge, possibly irreparable dents in larger economies. Governments will be stretched to maintain basic services for their people. As things stand, the world is staring at a severe recession.

The countless dead and injured in the war itself, are not even being mentioned here.

Food for thought for readers.

Keep watching this space for updates.

America's Latest War in West Asia - Iran Redux

 As the world woke up to the last day of February, it was greeted by news of the US-Israel attack on Iran. To many, it was a surprise because the last they had heard was an impending deal between the two sides, as the mediating Oman representative had surmised from discussions' end, the previous evening. It was doubly surprising because the sequence of events was well within the ultimatum given by President Trump, viz., 6th March. So, then to wake up to news of an attack initiated by US-Israel made no sense to most.

As is wont, the start of the war in West Asia, termed as Operation Epic Fury by the US, and Operation Roaring Lion by Israel,  finds itself shrouded in speculations, controversies, theories, and conjectures, as to what prompted the partners to undertake an attack, especially with a reasonably peaceful solution almost within reach. Depending on which side of the narrative one is reading, the theories range from the "plausible" to outright "bizarre". However, and notwithstanding, this note does not assume or speculate. It is a summation of  what this conflict throws up in military-political terms, and an initial brief of where the conflict stands, and what it indicates, in the first few days of hostilities. Updates will follow, as the situation develops.

In military terms, Iran's (purported) depleted abilities post the 12 Day War, in the previous year, along with some devastation of its missile and nuclear capacities, were expected to give an edge to the adversary. Its drone manufacturing capabilities were also expected to be running below par, owing its steady supply to Russia in the Russo-Ukraine War to the north. Over the last couple of years of Israel's offensive in Gaza, accompanied by relentless onslaught against Iran's proxy militias (Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis) across the region, were suggestive of them having been fairly de-fanged, at least to the extent of being unable to provide a viable multi-pronged reflex. 

On the other hand, the tremendous technological and numerical edge professed by the US-Israel combine, was likely to overwhelm any resistance from Iran. Even though there were some murmurs of US production of important munitions falling short, indeed, not even having made up for the expenditures incurred in the previous year, Trump's inimitable bombast papered it over. 

Shortly before the opening salvos, detailed satellite imagery of US assets in the region including bases, aircraft, and naval vessels pre-positioned, were released on open source intelligence sites, apparently by China. It was an indication of the level of technology possessed by China, apart from the fact that it also signaled its willingness to share such data, to the benefit of Iran. China is also known to have been supplying electronic technology for Iran's missile, radar, and drone development requirements.

Politically, dispensations in US and Israel are at their ebb in popularity rankings, albeit for different reasons. An Israeli offensive is probably the only issue that can propel Israelis to overlook Prime Minister Netanyahu's indiscretions primarily due to its history of viewing Iran as an existential threat. In the US, the President was elected on an America First plank, along with promises to extract the US military from protracted deployments abroad. Therefore, to lead the country in to another, possibly long-term engagement, does not ostensibly make sense. However, given a spate of recent events, showcasing Iran as inimical to US interests and even an immediate threat, provides the dispensation a smokescreen, if not more. 

On the Iranian side, recent and widespread domestic protests against the theological state's tyranny, made the government relatively vulnerable. An assumption that a limited offensive would result in change of regime, at the hands of a dissatisfied population (of course, with the right external impetus) may have prompted US-Israel to move at this time. Also, recent success in Venezuela would have encouraged the US, at least in being overly optimistic in its plans against Iran. Finally, Trump's domestic compulsions versus his foreign policy criticalities, may simply have been disregarded by his thirst for military adventurism, with his track record of scant regard for rules-based international system or disdain for global bodies such as the United Nations, or what they stand for. 

As things stand, the war shows no signs of abating or any compromise between the adversaries. Instead, the scope of the conflict has actually been enlarged by Iran's direct attacks on US facilities across the region, and civilian infrastructure in host nations. These include Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Cyprus, and Oman (its erstwhile mediator). Iran's attacks also encompass the oil infrastructure in the region, along with the threat of closing the Strait of Hormuz, responsible for the transit of 15% of global oil and 20% of global LNG supply. A recalcitrant Iran has promised attacks on any ships attempting the Strait of Hormuz stretch, bringing all merchant shipping to a grinding halt.

Military-political inferences on date can be summarised as follows:

In their military campaign comprising air strikes, though US-Israel maintain the destruction of nuclear and missile sites in Iran, its counter-attack suggests reliance on short-range missiles and drones, which it seems to have huge stockpiles of. Iran is effectively running up the costs for US-Israel, while keeping its own costs in control. For instance, $4Million worth Patriot missiles are facing $20000 drones, according to estimates. Interception too is proving costly, with 5-10 times costs incurred per interception of aerial vehicles/ steep trajectory weapons. 

The use of Anthropic based AI model as a battlefield tool, including identification of targets, analysing intelligence inputs, strike simulations, and decision-making, indicates the prescient amalgamation of AI in the modern war room and its utilisation in the increasingly digitalised war zones. Its effectiveness and efficacy will be evident in the days to come, as also its limitations.However, its use in Epic Fury is certainly a clarion call if not more, to all aspiring powers. 

Israel has attacked Lebanon for its hosting of the Hezbollah. Southern parts of Lebanon have been ordered to evacuate to provide strategic depth to bordering areas of Israel and its settlements.  

Iran's proxies have opened up alternate fronts against US-Israel, albeit commensurate to their depleted strengths. While these may not make substantial difference to the counter-attack, they will certainly serve as irritants to be countered.

In its defence, Iran has consciously adopted a Mosaic Defence, enabling its forces to break into small, independent, self-contained units, which are empowered to take tactical decisions without reference to the military chain of command, and even those decisions which may have strategic implications. Mosaics are also capable of coming together seamlessly, or breaking away, as the case may demand. 

Iran has so far targeted US bases in the region, bypassing all Air Defence systems deployed, proving its resilience in matching strike for strike. These include the Jebel Ali port and Al Dhafra air base (UAE), Prince Sultan air base  (Saudi Arabia),  Al Udeid air base (Qatar), Erbil and Ain al-Asad air bases (Iraq), Akrotini (Cyprus), Muwaffaq al-Salti air base (Jordan), Ali al-Salem air base and Camp Buehring (Kuwait), and Nsa Bahrain (Bahrain). It has also claimed a strike on the USS Abraham Lincoln with missiles, but this is not confirmed/ denied by the US.

Iran has brought down a number of the US' MQ-9 drones, numbers unconfirmed. It has also targeted (and claimed destroyed, unconfirmed by US) radars for THAAD and the AN/FPS-132 phased array radar. These are billion dollar technologies, and if their destruction is confirmed, it puts a big question mark on the US' ability to protect its own and its allies' assets in the region and beyond. 

Iran has so far not fired any hypersonic missiles, which travel at speeds exceeding 10000 mph and may not be possible to intercept. The missiles it has used are short range, and deployed on mobile carrier units (usually trucks), making it easy to hide, speedily deployed and fired, and difficult to track in real time. It also suits the concept of Mosaics employed by the Iranians.

The US has torpedoed IRIS Dena, an Iranian frigate which was returning from participating in the International Fleet Review 2026 in India's eastern port of Vishakhapatnam. Submarine launched Mark-48 torpedo was used to target the vessel, off the coast of Sri Lanka in the Indian Ocean. 

The war in West Asia has ruptured geopolitical equations, as they were, prior to it. 

Huge upheavals in oil and energy security, shipping, aviation, and hospitality sectors has been witnessed since the start of the war. Apart from these, associated sectors of manufacturing, food security, safety of expatriates and diaspora populations, is bringing huge downsides to financial markets across the globe, the scale of which was last seen during Covid times. 

Access to oil and energy from the region has come to a grinding halt. Major powers to be affected are China and India. With crude headed for the $100 mark per barrel, the war has opened up a fresh spate of panic, affecting as it is, not  just oil and gas, but associated industries such as fertilizers, refined products (including textiles), and shipping insurance. Insurers have raised the rates sharply in response to the threat envisaged in the Strait of Hormuz, effectively stopping shipping in its tracks. The cumulative effect is to raise the costs of energy sourcing, food production, imports/ exports, not least being the effect on buffer stocks for domestic consumption. Prolonged volatility is bound to put governments under strain.

US-Israel's disregard for the concerns of the rest of the world is likely to increase focus on alliances such as BRICS, in the near future. The extent to which major powers will get involved, is to be seen in times to come. What remains certain is the US' hegemony will stand challenged. If it does not succeed in its stated aim of regime change in Iran, it may well be a body blow to its continued acceptance in leadership position.

The assassination of Ayatollah Khameini is being compared to the death of Imam Husayn at Karbala, lending an extreme shade of martyrdom to the Ayatollah's death. It has also served to bridge the Sunni-Shia divide in Islam, as evident from violent protests across the region and beyond. The US seems to have self-created possibly an indestructible ideological nemesis for itself. This is likely to fuel prolonged backlash, further acts of terrorism, and if the US decides to go in for a ground offensive, it will almost certainly find itself in a quagmire of insurgencies. 

Keep watching this space for fresh developments and the next part to these updates.