Another day of the war in West Asia, showing no signs of either a quick resolution or any slackening in the ongoing military operations from both sides. More death and destruction raining from the skies. More pain inflicted on millions of people in the region, as well as millions of people around the world, indirectly affected by a war they have nothing to do with. Another day of huge financial losses, stock market tumbles, and increased volatility in multiple sectors of economies worldwide.
Some pertinent questions on the military-political aspects stemming from #EpicFury & #RoaringLion:
1. Is the campaign proceeding according to a plan?
Multiple and contradictory statements by administration officials in the US and Israel put a big question mark on whether the operations were actually undertaken with some concrete plans? Arguments on #StrategicDeterrence #EnergyLeverage #GrandStrategy #StrategicDepth are only as good as the reasoning and logic behind them. They begin to sound specious when leadership contradictions emerge, time planning is revised to suit the moment of facing a questioning audience, and no firm answers are available to aims and objectives of operations, especially military in nature.
(And to answer an unspoken one - yes the world does need answers. Because it is the global population which is facing the brunt of actions in West Asia).
2. Are drones the new go-to option for equalising the asymmetry of warfare between unequal adversaries?
Evident from the manner in which drones are being utilised by Iran, they have emerged as relatively inexpensive to manufacture, they can be amassed for use in swarms and waves relentlessly causing attrition, are effective against expensive hi-tech deployed by the superior enemy, and have a much lower material and human cost attached to their use. Their retaliatory usage lends less escalation pressure to operational matrices, simultaneous to their effective use in high numbers, and fewer cost-effective counter mechanisms. While so far not used in fully autonomous modes, their usage is likely to pervade all domains of warfare in the near future as dynamic utilisations are arrived at.
3. The attack on the IRIS Dena in international waters in the IOR.
What is the sanctity of multilateralism, and hence multilateral exercises such as the International Fleet Review? Is attack on a vessel returning to home port, in a non-combat mode, justified? If any vessel conducting itself in a "peace protocol" as such exercises demand, then its destruction, that too by a nuclear submarine, not only sounds beyond justification, it begets allegations of deliberate targeting of a virtual non-combatant. Finally, what manner of intelligence was responsible for the attack, and where did it originate?
4. What was the causus belli for the US-Israel offensive?
Did the ostensible vulnerability of the regime in Iran, following massive protests, responsible for the timing of the war? If Iran's nuclear strength was responsible, then what was the previous year's offensive meant for - especially so, since its stated aims were achieved, according to, no less than the US President. If the US intends to undertake regime change, air strikes are not going to achieve it; hence, if boots on the ground will ultimately be required, then the whole US posture of withdrawing from external and "forever" wars, seems to be a farce. Finally, if none of these, then what is the world expected to accept it as - military adventurism?
5. Is this war making any difference to China?
In the geopolitical struggle between the US and China, the war in Iran is seen as another pain point (after Venezuela's example) for China, especially its energy security, being dependent on the oil and gas from the Gulf for 50-60% of its requirements. To that extent, how long before China engages means to secure the supply of oil from the region? Will naval escorts for tankers suffice? Or will this mean China's entry in to the conflict?
On the other hand, contemporary conflicts are being used by China as test-beds for emerging technologies from Chinese incubators, with their real test under combat conditions, at little cost to China itself, or without it having to enter the fray.
War materiel expenditures are reducing stockpiles of the US, possibly at rates that it may not be able to replenish so speedily. Will the war therefore, indirectly work in favour of China?
6. Will this war and the actions of US-Israel prove to be precedents to other conflict flashpoints?
Scant regard for rules-based international order is evident from the disdain exhibited by the US in not consulting even its allies, leave alone the UN sanctifying its actions. This hubris unfortunately comes at a cost, and may be cited as precedent for future attacks on other countries, or killing of heads of states. Instantaneously the examples of Ukraine and Taiwan come to mind; a belligerent Russia and China, should they choose to adopt the same route, would have benefit of precedent.
7. How will the Gulf states react?
Iran's attacks on first, the US bases in host countries, followed by attacks on oil infrastructure and pipelines in the larger middle East, is indicative of it spreading an enlarging choke around strategic reserves, ensuring depletion, followed by a continuous and sustained collapse of supply. Even if the GCC states ignore the attacks on US bases, will they be able to indefinitely ignore the noose around their supply lines? Apart from the havoc wreaked on the rest of the world's oil and energy security, the GCC states' own economies will buckle under the absence of petrodollar inflows. In the eventuality, how long before they exit the alliance with the US?
8. How long will the world continue to suffer for America's actions? (alongside, how long will Israel's flagrant and blatant violations of the rules-based order be ignored by the rest of the world?)
If the war continues for "3-4 weeks", as casually mentioned by the US President, it has cascading effects on Oil and gas prices, food production and supplies, manufacturing, airlines, shipping, tourism and hospitality industry. Currency fluctuations will ruin the financial bases of many small economies, and make huge, possibly irreparable dents in larger economies. Governments will be stretched to maintain basic services for their people. As things stand, the world is staring at a severe recession.
The countless dead and injured in the war itself, are not even being mentioned here.
Food for thought for readers.
Keep watching this space for updates.
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